The Healthiest Housing Markets for 2009

From: BUILDER 2009
Posted on: February 17, 2009 11:02:00 AM
2009's Healthiest Housing Markets

The Healthiest Housing Markets for 2009

Builder, in conjunction with Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, debuts its metric for determining markets with the best and least potential.

With most economists and builders expecting a national market decline this year, this may not seem like the best time to be selecting the "healthiest" markets in the country. Virtually every market was down last year. But a close look at the numbers reveals that some markets have way outperformed others during the last four years and are likely to continue to do so this year.

When the housing market stages its official recovery, the markets listed on the following pages are likely to lead the parade. It may take a year or more for the weakest markets--where burgeoning foreclosure sales are still pounding new home values, making building and selling new homes an exercise in futility-- to finally stage a turnaround. We'll present that list next week.

The healthiest markets have many things in common. Most of them are great places to live, either close to the ocean, mountains, or major universities. Most of them didn't have a huge run-up in prices during the boom and aren't experiencing rampant deflation during the bust.

To compile these lists, we analyzed the top 75 housing markets in the country. We ranked them based on population trends and job growth, perennial drivers of housing demand. We also examined what's happened with home prices; many of the healthiest markets have managed to hold the line on home values. And finally, we considered the rate building permits, which may be the single best ongoing indicator of builder confidence in a market. We combined all these metrics to produce a score for each market.

Here are the top 15, in reverse order.

The Healthiest Markets for 2009

15. Myrtle Beach, S.C.
2008 total building permits: 3,211
Though permit activity dropped sharply last year, Myrtle Beach remains one of the hottest markets in the country, especially when you analyze the number of permits pulled per resident. Only 263,287 people live in the Myrtle Beach metro area, which until recently had been growing its population by nearly 5 percent a year. That means builders pulled one permit for every 82 residents. A steady influx of people, many of them retirees, are drawn by close proximity to the ocean and 117 golf courses at last count. That has helped keep home prices steady; they fell only 10 percent last year to a very affordable $174,800. Most of the home building is split between Brunswick and New Hanover counties. Jobs are dependent on the tourist industry, though, and the metro area was rocked last year when a $400 million rock-and-roll themed amusement part, Hard Rock Park, opened and then filed for bankruptcy. Myrtle Beach added jobs last year, but as of December employment was decreasing at a 4.2 percent rate compared to a year earlier.
Busiest builders: Centex Homes, D.R. Horton, Beazer Homes, Bill Clark Homes, Pasquinelli/Portrait Homes

14. Wilmington, N.C.
2008 total building permits: 3,551
Wilmington has the second highest ratio of permits pulled per resident, behind only Myrtle Beach. The population here, 352,919 by Census estimates, has been growing at a 4 percent annual rate for the last five years, well above the national average. Primary residents are drawn by a four-season climate, close proximity to Atlantic beaches, and affordable housing. Median home prices, at $198,700, are just about the national average. The area gave back 1,000 jobs last year, after gaining 19,000 the previous three years. Wilmington has had a 60 percent decline in permit activity since 2005, around the national average, but its track record for population growth helps it make this list.

13. Charlotte, N.C.
2008 total building permits: 12,231
People and businesses must love Charlotte, because they are moving there at a high rate. The metro area of 1.74 million has grown its residents by 4 percent annually over the last five years, one of the highest rates in the country. They are drawn by relatively affordable housing for the east coast—median home prices are only $210,900, and they've only "corrected" downward by only 4.2 percent in the last year. A strong fourth quarter helped Charlotte record 12,231 permits last year, only a 44 percent decline since 2005. Charlotte's strength relative to other markets led the investment banking firm UBS to predict last year that it would be one of the first markets to recover from the housing downturn. Charlotte is still a single-family market, with 62 percent of the residential activity in stand-alone homes. The job market in this banking hub contracted last year, after growing 3 to 5 percent annually the previous three years.
Busiest builders: C.P. Morgan, NVR/Ryan Homes, Pulte Homes, Centex Homes, KB Home

12. Denver, Col.
2008 total building permits: 8,800
Denver has been all over the home building news of late, with Beazer and Centex leaving town, then Village Homes of Colorado declaring bankruptcy. But the market hasn't been hit as hard by the home building recession as other Western markets, in part because it didn't experience rampant price appreciation during the boom. That's partly because there's lots of land available to develop in Denver. The median price of an existing home here was still an affordable $225,100 in the third quarter of last year, down only 11.4 percent in the last year (through 3Q 08). Denver enjoys one of the highest population growth rates in the country--2 percent annually for each of the last five years. Builders pulled 8,800 permits in Denver last year, down from 20,864 in 2005, a percentage decline that's close to the national average. Denver is buoyed by a strong commercial real estate market.
Busiest builders: D.R. Horton, Richmond American Homes, Standard Pacific Homes, Shea Homes, Engle Homes. Courtesy: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

11. Nashville, Tenn.
2008 total building permits: 8,142
Nashville, the 20th largest home building market, operated under the radar of the national housing boom. It didn't ramp up wildly during the boom years, and it's not contracting viciously during the bust. Median home prices remain an affordable $152,100, propped up by a growing job base. Eighty percent of the residential construction is single-family. Some of the market's resilience stems from above-average population growth of about 2.3 percent a year. Back in the day, 2005, Nashville accounted for 16,654 permits; it now runs at about half that level. But that's a better performance than most major markets.
Busiest builders: Ole South Properties, Beazer Homes, Centex Homes, The Jones Company of Tennessee, Technical Olympic USA. Courtesy: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

10. Washington DC
2008 total building permits: 11,693
Washington D.C. showed signs last summer that it might be emerging from the downturn, then it turned south again. Even so, the area produces a ton of jobs—an estimated 35,000 in the last year—that fuel a vibrant housing market, the 11th largest in the country. Many of the jobs stem from contracts with the federal government. Washington D.C. remains a relatively unaffordable place to live, with a median home price of $332,700 in the third quarter of last year. But values have fallen only 24 percent in the last year in part because the population continues to grow—an average of 1 percent annually over the last five years. Home building patterns have changed dramatically in the nation's capital with builders mothballing subdivisions well beyond the beltway and focusing on infill opportunities. The region remains one of the worst in the nation for commuters.
Busiest builders: Ryan Homes, K. Hovnanian Homes, Centex Homes, NV Homes, and Stanley Martin Companies. Courtesy: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

9. Fayetteville, Ark.
2008 total building permits: 2,989
Fayetteville has made some important lists in recent years. Located in the foothills of the Ozarks and within an easy drive of Wal-Mart's corporate headquarters, it has recently been named one of the best places to live (by Kiplinger) and to do business (by Inc.). Employment, which had been strongly positive since 2005, dropped somewhat in the fourth quarter of last year. Recent layoffs at Wal-Mart's corporate office sent tremors through the market. But several Fortune 500 companies that sell products to Wal-Mart have established offices here, and they have helped Fayetteville achieve one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country, 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter. The University of Arkansas is also located in Fayetteville, and it has helped attract start-up businesses. Residents are drawn by an affordable housing stock; median prices average only $139,400, below the national average, and they've lost only 2.4 percent of their value in the last year. Builders pulled only 2,989 residential permits last year, down from 7, 449 in 2005.

8. Indianapolis, Ind.
2008 total building permits: 7,004
Builders are still pulling permits at a relatively healthy rate in Indianapolis, despite a virtually flat job market. Unlike other major markets that have become multifamily-oriented, single family still accounts for two-thirds of home building activity. Ultra-affordable housing accounts for some of the activity—the median price of a home here is only $117,900, making it one of the most affordable markets in the country. As a result, home prices have declined only 4.5 percent in the last year. At the top of the market in 2005, builders in Indianapolis took down 15,619 permits, so activity is down 55 percent, slightly better than the national average. Unfortunately, the relative health of the market wasn't enough to keep Davis Homes, one of the area's largest private builders, from going out of business last year.
Busiest builders: C.P. Morgan, Beazer Homes USA/Trinity Homes, Centex Homes, American West Development/Arbor Homes, The Ryland Group. Courtesy: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

7. Seattle, Wash.
2008 total building permits: 13,021
Seattle, a city of 3.4 million people, last year weighed in as the eighth largest home building market. Residential construction activity here, as measured by permits, is off only 50 percent since 2005, much better than most markets. Seattle has steadily transitioned during the last 10 years from an affordable to an upscale housing market, with the median price of an existing home reaching above $350,000. Even so, existing home prices fell only 11 percent in the last year. One of the secrets to Seattle's success is that it has added lots of jobs in recent years; and held on to them last year. Some builders there have even stepped up their land buying in anticipation of a market recovery. As the city has become more urban, the share of single family to multifamily permits has reversed; multifamily now accounts for 58 percent of activity.
Busiest builders: Quadrant Homes, Centex Homes, Murray Franklyn, Camwest Development, Polygon Northwest. Courtesy: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

6. Raleigh, N.C.
2008 total building permits: 11,386
Another state capital with multiple universities, Raleigh was still adding jobs at a 1.9 percent annual rate though the third quarter of last year. With a population of more than 1 million, it also has one of the highest rates of population growth of any top metro market in the country over the last five years: nearly 5 percent annually. Though the price of a median home here, $221,900, is above the national average, it is well below other cities in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The metro area has added roughly 68,000 jobs since 2005, and employment held steady last year. With a glut of national builders in the market, locals such as Dixon Kirby have experimented with different looks and styles to keep sales alive.
Busiest builders: Centex Homes, KB Home, Pulte Homes, Hovnanian Enterprises, Atreus Homes & Communities. Courtesy: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

5. Dallas, Texas
2008 total building permits: 26,145
In a year when permits declined 35 percent nationally, Dallas only experienced a 9 percent fall-off. With a population of 4.2 million, Dallas was the third largest home building market last year, as measured in permits pulled. Employers in Dallas, a popular place for corporate relocation and expansion, added 42,000 jobs last year, a growth rate of 2 percent. Existing home prices have held steady, falling a paltry 2.3 percent in the last year, Interestingly, the face of residential construction has changed dramatically in Dallas in recent years; 58 percent of the activity last year was in multifamily, compared to a five-year average of 23 percent. The relative stability of the market, though, wasn't enough to prevent Wall Homes from filing for bankruptcy earlier this year. On the other hand, former Meritage co-CEO John Landon recently started a new Dallas-based home building company.
Busiest builders: D.R. Horton, Highland Homes, David Weekely Homes, K.Hovnanian Homes, Drees Custom Homes. Courtesy: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

4. San Antonio, Texas
2008 total building permits: 10,261
San Antonio is another Texas market that is still adding jobs, about 15,000 last year. A city of more than 2 million people now, its population is also growing, at a 2.8 percent annual clip through the third quarter of last year. Existing home prices are barely declining in San Antonio, down only 1.8 percent in the last year, leaving the median price of an existing single-family home at an affordable $154,400, 25 percent below the national average of $200,500, according to the National Association of Realtors. The upper end of the housing market was hurt recently when AT&T announced it would be moving its corporate headquarters to Dallas.
Busiest builders: D.R. Horton, K.B. Home, Centex Homes, Pulte Homes, Fieldstone Communities. Courtesy: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

3. Fort Worth, Texas
2008 Total Building Permits: 10,388
Fort Worth, always operating in the shadow of higher profile Dallas, nevertheless can currently claim to have a slightly healthier housing market, based on its employment growth, relatively strong permit activity, and inexpensive housing. Now the 14th largest home building market in the country, Ft. Worth's builders pulled 10,388 permits last year, roughly two-thirds of them single-family. That may be half as many as 2005, but many other major markets showed much sharper drop-offs. The relative strength of the Fort Worth market in recent years stems from its ties to the oil and gas industries, which has fueled above-average job growth. The metro area added 17,300 jobs last year.
Busiest builders: D.R. Horton, Choice Homes, History Maker Homes, Meritage Homes, Centex Homes. Courtesy: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

2. Austin, Texas
2008 Total Building Permits: 14,250
Nine years ago, during the tech bust, some builders felt that Austin was too crowded and left. The bloom is back on Austin's yellow rose now; it moved up the leader board to become the sixth largest home building market last year. Job creation explains the move. While other markets lost employment, Austin added 17,400 jobs last year, 2.31 percent growth rate. It helps that Austin is home to both a major university, The University of Texas, and the state capital. Existing homes cost a little bit more in Austin than other Texas markets, roughly $190,900, but that's still below the national average. Also, Austin is one of the few metro areas in the country where median prices actually rose in 2008--1.4 percent through the first three quarters of the year. Amazingly, Austin now generates more home building activity than Chicago, which has six times more people.
Busiest builders: D.R. Horton, Lennar, KB Home, Centex Homes, Meritage Homes. Courtesy: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

1. Houston, Texas
2008 Total Building Permits: 42,697
They like to do things big in Houston. Now the metro area, home to nearly 5.8 million people, can lay claim to being the largest home building market in the country, with 42,697 building permits. The market is still benefiting from an influx of population and jobs and rebuilding in the wake of Hurricane Ike. Employment rose 2.2 percent last year, representing the addition of an incredible 57,000 jobs. Home building activity in Houston has only fallen 31 percent since 2005. Also, existing home prices actually rose in Houston last year, 2.8 percent, to $160,200, still a very affordable level. Roughly one third of the home building action is in Harris County, followed by Houston proper and Fort Bend County. One of Houston's largest builders, Royce Homes, shut down last year, and Kimball Hill, one of the biggest builders in Texas, closed its doors this year after it failed to find a buyer.
Busiest builders: Lennar, Perry Homes, David Weekley Homes, MHI/McGuyer Homebuilders, and KB Home. Courtesy: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

Tax Credit for First Time Home Buyers

"GOOD COMMUNICATION IS AS STIMULATING AS BLACK COFFEE...AND JUST AS HARD TO SLEEP AFTER." Anne Morrow Lindbergh And communication on the new $789 Billion Stimulus Plan has been flying fierce over the past week, resulting in late nights for Congress and probably more than a few cups of coffee. President Obama is certainly hoping the new plan will wake up the struggling economy, and breathe some life back into the housing market as well.
The tax credit in the Stimulus Bill has been scaled down to $8,000 from its previous level of $15,000, or 10% of the value of the home for any first time homebuyers who purchase homes from the start of the year until the end of November. It starts phasing out for couples with incomes above $150,000 and single filers with incomes above $75,000, and buyers will have to repay the credit if they sell their homes within three years.
In addition, there's news that the Obama administration is trying to hammer out a new program to subsidize mortgages to fight the credit crisis. The plan would seek to help homeowners before they fall into arrears on their loans, whereas current programs only assist borrowers that are already delinquent. There are no details yet on this plan, but I will be monitoring this news closely in the weeks ahead.

Feel Like All Hope Has Been Lost On Your Mortgage? The May Be A Way Out!

Problems With Your Mortgage?
There May be a Short Way Out





With unemployment figures reaching a 25-year high, the toll of the declining economy continues to impact hundreds of thousands of families each month, especially homeowners struggling with their mortgage. According to RealtyTrac, 303,410 foreclosure notices were served on properties in the month of December alone. This followed the 2,854,396 foreclosure filings throughout all of 2008.

For homeowners facing foreclosure, options do exist that can prevent the trauma of losing their home or facing long-term financial loss. YOU Magazine has addressed these options in previous issues. So, this month we'll focus instead on short sales, an alternative to foreclosure for struggling homeowners who do not want to stay in their homes but would also like to avoid the years of potential financial damage that a foreclosure could cause on their credit rating. If you or someone you know are looking for a "short" way out of a mortgage, keep reading and find out if a short sale is a feasible option.

Don't Be Short-Sighted
Before we dive into what a short sale is and how it can benefit some struggling homeowners, it's important to understand that you're not alone, and that just because you're struggling now doesn't mean you won't be able to recover in the near future. In today's tough economy, millions of Americans are facing challenging situations seriously affecting their finances right now that they can, and will, eventually overcome, including lay-offs, divorce, the death of a spouse, or even major losses in the stock market or their retirement investments.

That's why, before choosing to attempt a short sale, it's important to ask yourself if staying in your home is an option you'd like to explore, because there are opportunities, including a loan modification that may be a better path for some struggling homeowners to pursue. A loan modification would allow the homeowner, in many instances, to renegotiate the terms of their existing mortgage(s) to a more affordable monthly payment(s). This can be accomplished in a number of ways that bring about both temporary and permanent solutions but ultimately allow the homeowner to keep their home.

If you think that a change in your mortgage terms, like a lower rate or lower monthly payments, might help you make it through this rough patch, it's important to communicate with your lender, even if you're several months behind in your payments. Many lenders have reported that in over 50% of the cases where a homeowner is delinquent on his or her mortgage, they have been unable to reach the owner to discuss any options. Picking up the phone and placing a call is always in your best interest. More importantly, opening lines of communication with family members, in many cases, could help lighten the emotional burden that often comes along with these challenges.

When Staying is Not a Viable Option
If, however, you think a loan modification would not be appropriate for your individual needs, one solution to avoiding foreclosure could be a short sale. A short sale is an agreement from the lender(s) to allow the homeowner to sell the property for less than what is owed on the mortgage(s). An example would be an agreement to allow a sale of the home to take place for $175,000 when $300,000 is actually owed on the property.

For a lender to consider a short sale, there are a number of factors that the lender will take into consideration before an approval can be secured, including:

Current hardship, which can include a change of income due to job loss, loss of hours or salary reduction, illness, death of a wage earner, or a change in marital status.
The property is "upside down," which means the house is worth less in today's market than what is owed.
It's important to note that, unlike a loan modification, a homeowner does not have to be delinquent to be considered for a short sale. However, a hardship should be demonstrated showing that the homeowner would not be able to remain current on the mortgage in the future due to mounting financial obligations.

Why would a lender agree to sell your home at a loss? Well, in many cases, the foreclosure process results in a loss of up to 40% or more of the original mortgage balance for the lender. When borrowers and lenders work together on a short sale or loan modification, however, these losses can be reduced by roughly half, in many cases. For example, a foreclosure on a $300,000 home could cost the lender up to $120,000 or more in losses, where they might only lose $60,000 by working with the borrower. Add to that the record losses incurred on other foreclosures, and it's clear why lenders, in many cases, prefer to negotiate a solution.

Credit Benefit
Working with a lender to negotiate a short sale instead of a foreclosure can also be more beneficial to your credit as well, especially if you want to secure another mortgage in the near future when your finances are back on track. According to Fannie Mae, one of the largest mortgage insurers in the country, a foreclosure on your credit record will likely mean it will be between 3 and 5 years before you're able to secure a new mortgage. The typical timeframe to buy a new home with a short sale on your record, however, is only two years.

A short sale also has a lesser impact to your FICO score compared to a foreclosure, which is very important for obtaining future credit from everything including automobiles and consumer credit to getting reconnected with local utilities and cell phones services. Your credit score can even affect certain employment opportunities as well.

Start the Process
The first step of a short sale is to contact your lender and seek their assistance.

The second step is to enlist the help of an experienced real estate agent. An agent who is skilled at handling the negotiation process will not only minimize negotiation time, he or she will also help in limiting the time and costs of marketing the property.

Tony Sena, a real estate agent with North American Realty in Las Vegas, Nevada agrees. Sena, who is currently closing 10-15 short sale transactions a month says, "The single greatest reason for a distressed property not selling is selecting the wrong agent."

When selecting an agent, don't be afraid to ask questions about their experience. Sena says to look at the current inventory of listings the agent represents and ask:

How many of the properties are currently short sale properties?
Does the agent have testimonial letters from short sale sellers?
If an agent says they have sold a number of short sale properties, how many of the transactions were listings sold, not just where they had the buyer.
The third step is to price the house properly, according to the market. While many buyers would love to "steal" your property for the lowest price possible, remember that the lender is already going to incur a loss and they are not interested in losing more than they have to. Sena suggests initially pricing the property at the current value and then reducing the asking price every two weeks until it attracts buyers. Then, once you have an offer, the negotiations on the final price can begin with the lender.

The last step is to be prepared for challenges in both the short sale process and in the market place. Remember, you have a lot of competition out there and getting a property sold can be tough, especially in a buyer's market. However, choosing the right agent and setting the right price can assist you in not only selling it more quickly but also in minimizing the friction of having to deal with the lender directly.

Be aware that, in some cases, not all, a lender will agree to a certain price, but only if the seller agrees to accept a promissory note for some amount of the deficiency – that means money that you will be responsible for paying back. In some cases, Sena has seen lenders ask that sellers pay up to $20,000. However, while early last year the interest rate for these notes was in the range of 4% to 8%, lately Sena has seen that lenders have also been extending offers with 0% and terms of repayment up to ten years.

Get Moving
Once you recognize that you are having problems keeping up with your mortgage payment, take action quickly. Decide whether you want to stay in the home or not. Then contact your lender to find out the best solution to your needs. If you'd like to learn more about short sales or other foreclosure alternatives, a great place to start is by contacting the professional who provided you with this copy of YOU Magazine.

Some Interesting Bits

Welcome to the Real Living e-newsletter!
February 2009
February is National Bird Feeding Month
Turn your backyard into a friendly oasis for neighborhood birds.
Inspect for These Potential Household Hazards
When purchasing a new home, does the inspection process seem foreign to you? If so, you're not alone. Many people feel uncomfortable about uncovering potential problems in their home. So, before you hire an inspector, make sure the person is certified with the American Society of Home Inspectors. This important credential ensures that your home receives a thorough examination. After the inspection is complete, ask your inspector to supply a written assessment of the home that details both positive and negative findings.
iPod Applications Make Life a Little Greener
For those of you who love your iPod, iPhone or whatever other Apple product you own, check out the environmental applications you can purchase through Apple's iTunes store.
Listing Your Home Online
It's hard to deny the power of the Internet today. Between staying connected with distant family and friends, paying our bills and applying for jobs, the Internet allows us the ability to multitask from the comfort of our own homes. But more important, to those interested in the real estate industry, the Internet has made the home-selling process easier than ever.
Picking the Perfect Neighborhood
Safety, atmosphere, events and neighbors are all important components to consider when buying a home. How do you find the perfect neighborhood? Good question. Here are some things to consider when evaluating new surroundings.
Many Boomers Consider Relocation
Imagine all-inclusive golf, the beach, bowling, theatres, fitness centers and hands-on activities. Sounds like the perfect vacation. This may be the perfect vacation, but it can also be a permanent vacation once you retire!
Winter Home Maintenance
Home maintenance can sometimes be a drag, but it's important to maintain your house throughout the year in order to avoid structural damage, fire hazards, infestations and other problems. Here are some commonly overlooked duties that you may want to build into your schedule this month.

We have Lost a True Humanitarian

Millard Dean Fuller, the founder of
Habitat for Humanity and the
Fuller Center for Housing
died Monday after a brief illness.

He was 74.

Every once in a while, the world is
graced by greatness, by genius, by
extraordinary people.

Our generation was blessed to have
seen someone like Millard Fuller.

Not so much by the greatness of his
name, nor the brilliance of his mind,
nor the excellence of his person.

But by the fullness of his kindness,
the abundance of his compassion and
the purity of his spirit.

He has left in his wake a legacy of
goodness and charity worth emulating
and preserving so that future generations
may also experience his inspiration.

Time may come that his name may be
forgotten, but may we always bear in
our hearts and minds the virtues that
once were embodied by that pillar
or a man - Millard Dean Fuller.

May he rest in peace.

**Millard Fuller was a man close to
my heart as well as to millions more
whose lives he has touched all these
years.

Quite recently, we tied up with the
Fuller Center for Housing and helped
raise money for their numerous housing
projects.

There was truly a profound feeling of joy
knowing that we were able to share in
the vision of Mr. Fuller to alleviate the plight
and suffering of our homeless brethren.

Let me share with you the last interview
I had with such a great man as
Millard Fuller.

http://dodeals.com/MillardFuller

Provided by Tim Mai